Latest Forecasts
Construction Outlook: July 2025
The outlook for GB construction remains dull, largely due to ongoing weakness in the housing market. Meanwhile, the economy continues to perform badly, and it is our view that the trend of weak GDP growth, accompanied by near zero GDP per capita growth, will remain with us this decade. GDP per capita – the key … Read More
Construction Outlook: April 2025
UK GDP growth more or less ground to a halt around the middle of 2024, while GDP per capita – a key indicator or living standards – continued to perform poorly. Since 2022 GDP per capita has edged lower, and it is now no higher than in 2019, and just 6% above that in 2007/2008. … Read More
Construction Outlook: January 2025
Economic activity has slowed since mid-2024, with near zero growth recorded over that time. Of more concern is a persistent weakness in GDP growth per capita, something the UK economy no longer seems able to deliver. Meanwhile, and partly due to weak per-capita GDP growth, the public sector is commanding a larger share of economic … Read More
Construction Outlook: Autumn 2024
Our latest forecasts take account of the October 2024 Budget, which set out marked increases in taxes and public expenditure, alongside weak economic growth. The OBR sums the Budget up noting that ‘against a broadly unchanged economic and fiscal backdrop since March 2024, this Budget delivers a large, sustained increase in spending, taxation, and borrowing’. … Read More
Construction Outlook: July 2024
After increasing modestly in 2023, we expect the volume of construction output to fall in both 2024 and 2025. Meanwhile the economy is expected to plateau in 2024, and then increase modestly over the years 2025-2026. By the end of 2026 we expect GDP to be 3-4% above that in 2019. The rise in construction … Read More
Construction Outlook: April 2024
After increasing by 2% in 2023, the outlook for construction is one of weakness, with volumes forecast to fall by roughly 5% in 2024, and 3% in 2025. Near stability is forecast for 2026. The rise in work reported for 2023 was due entirely to repair and maintenance, which ONS data shows as increasing by … Read More
Construction Outlook: January 2024
The outlook for construction will continue to be affected by lag effects associated with tighter monetary policy and elevated debt levels: in short the UK economy is yet to fully experience the economic impact of near 5% base rates. In the public sector raised borrowing costs, alongside elevated debt levels, are serving to limit public … Read More
Construction Regions: Autumn 2023
Hewes & Associates’ latest regional construction forecast provides new work output forecasts (public & private housing, infrastructure, public non-housing, industrial, commercial) and repair & maintenance output forecasts (housing, public non-housing, private non-housing, infrastructure) for all 11 regions of Great Britain, covering the years 2023 – 2025. Some highlights of the report: The decline in private … Read More
Construction Outlook: October 2023
The outlook for construction and the economy is, in a nutshell, one of challenge and weakness. The lag effects of excess debt followed by tighter monetary policy are such that we are yet to fully experience the economic impact of near 5% base rates. More than a decade of near zero base rates, combined with … Read More
Construction Outlook: July 2023
The outlook for construction is very much tied to the path of interest rates, which have risen steeply since early 2022. Such are the lag effects of monetary policy that we are yet to fully see the economic impact of 5% or so base rates. We thus expect the economy to slip into recession over … Read More